- Numbers to area
- Resource base and availability
- Economic development
- Standards of Living
- Food supply
- Health and Wellbeing
- World population is approximately 6.5 Billion
- Has been slowing for several years
- Expected to peak somewhere between 8 and 9 billion
- Most of the growth is focused in the developing world
Rates
- Record the frequency of occurrence of an event during a given time frame for a designated population.
- A population group unified by a specific common characteristic and who are treated as a statistical unit.
- 30 per 1000 or better are considered high
- Generally third world nations
- Primarily agricultural
- High proportion of young, females in population
- 18 per 1000 or worse are considered low
- Industrialized and urbanized nations
- Birth rates between 18 and 30 are considered Transitional
- Mainly smaller developing and/or industrializing nations
- The average number of children that would be born to each woman if, during her childbearing years, she bore children at the current year’s rate for women that age…
- the level of fertility at which each successive generation of women produces exactly enough children to ensure a constant population
- World rate is 2005 = 2.7 down from 1985 = 3.7
- Developed countries had 1.6 TFR in 2005 down from 2.0 in 1985
- Developing world had 3.0 TFR in 2005 down from 6.0 in 1960
Crude Death Rate (CDR) or the Mortality Rate – the annual number of deaths per 1000 population.
- Greater than 20 per 1000 considered high
- Fewer than 10 per 1000 considered low
- Greatly affected by the decrease in infant mortality
- Trends follow presence of disease and the HIV/AIDS epidemic
Maternal Mortality Rates – death of women during childbirth.
- The single greatest difference between developed and developing nations
- In the
- Economic Status
- Developing vs. Developed Nations
- Urban vs. Rural
- Cultural Values
- Expected infant death rate
- Presence/Absence of epidemic disease
- Medical Care
- Access to clean food and water
- A graphic device that represents a population’s age and sex composition.
- Rapid Growth
- Stability
- Decline
- Disrupted Growth
- The number of economic dependents (young or old) that each 100 people in their productive years must support.
- The baby boomers in the
- Major factor of internal instability of a nation
- Unemployed young males (ages 16-30)
- People who kill other people (ages 16-30)
Rate of Natural Increase
- subtract the crude death rate from the crude birth rate. Migration is not included.
- The time it takes a population to double if the current growth rate remains constant.
An attempt to apply a model to known world development based on changes due to industrialization and urbanization of nations and cultures.
The model traces changing levels of fertility and mortality with the assumption that, over time, high birth and death rates will gradually be replaced by low rates.
- High Births – High Deaths
- Pre-industrial economy
- High Births – Declining Deaths
- Developing Country
- Improving food and water supply
- Improving Sanitation
- Improvements in farming technology
- Improvements in education
- Results in a large population increase
- Declining Births – Low Deaths
- Contraception
- Wage increases
- Urbanization
- Reduction of subsistence agriculture
- Increase in status and education of women
- Reduced child labor
- Increase in parental investment in children
- Population growth begins to level off
- Low Births – Low Deaths
- Stabilization of population
- Idealized end point
- Deaths higher than Births
- Shrinking population
- Threat to Industrial Societies
- Norm in post-Industrial/deindustrialized societies
- Mitigated through immigration
- Based on the European experience
- Low post-feudal birth rates replaced by higher birth rates due to increased wealth from industrialization
- Followed by improvements in sanitation and medicine
- Reduction of the chronic “plagues” which had formerly swept
- Finally a reduction of births to match deaths
- Children no longer seen as producers
- Children affected family wealth levels negatively
- Emancipation of women
- Improvements in modern disease control and sanitation modify the curve in developing nations
- Dramatic and quick reduction of mortality rates
- Within one generation instead of over several
- Immediate population increase
- Increased life expectancy for adults
- Dramatic reductions in child and maternal mortality rates
- Decline in Birth Rates is only gradual due to modified cultural expectations
- Some transitional nations still have very high birth rates
- Seem to be caught in a negative spiral
- Poor countries, unable to provide for large population growth
- Population growth inhibits wealth production
- Failure of services drives up mortality rates but not to the previous point of balance with the birth rate
- Enough services remain to increase survivability
- Primarily in sub-Saharan Africa, south central Asia, and the
- These countries will provide the majority of population growth during the early and mid 21st Century
· A mathematical equation with summarizes the variables involved in the change in population size within an area or region.
· Natural Change and Net Migration
o Net Migration – difference between in-migration and out-migration
- Provides a relief valve for developing nations to make it through that period where high birth rates have not yet matched falling mortality rates.
- Allowed
- Is no longer an effective release valve for developing nations
- No open economies as there were in the 19th and early 20th Centuries
- Leads to large numbers of unemployed, unskilled immigrants in developed nations
- Mesoamerica and
- Brain drain from source nations
- Developing nations today
- How has the internet and interconnectivity affected this
- Thomas Friedman’s Flat Earth
- Population Demographics
- Mainly young males
- Followed by young females
- How is this affected by immigration policies
- Uneven distribution
- Uneven population density
- Urbanization
- 50% of the world’s population lives in cities
- Europe and
- 90% of all people live north of the Equator
- 60% live between 20° and 60° North (Temperate Climate)
- 50% of the world’s population live on just 5% of its land area
- Almost 90% of the population live on less than 20% of its land area
- People favor lowland areas over high altitude regions…
- 80% live below 500 meters above sea level
- Continental margins attract the densest settlement
- 60% of the world’s population lives within 100 km of the ocean
- Largest Cluster – over 25% of world’s total population
- 22% of the world’s total population
- 12% of world’s total population
- Northeastern United States/southeastern
- Ecumene – to permanently inhabited areas of the earth
- From the Greek “to inhabit”
- Nonecumene (anecumene) – the uninhabited or very sparsely inhabited
Population Density
- The relationship between the number of inhabitants and the area they occupy
- Crude or Arithmetic Density
- Most simple calculation
- Total population for a given area
- Generally used for nation sized regions
- Averages high and low density areas
- Physiological Density
- Total population by arable land
- Agricultural Density
- Total rural population per unit of arable land
- Ignores urban populations
Overpopulation
- When a region or environment is unable to support its present population
- Can be a subjective judgment
- When people start to starve
- When standards of living begin to fall
- Carrying Capacity
- The number of people an area can support on a sustained basis, given the prevailing technology.
- Related to economic and industrial development
- The transformation of a population from a rural to urban status
- The process of city formation and expansion
- Highest rates in developing nations
- Urban areas will account for almost all population growth in the early 21st Century
- Reduction in arable land
- Ability to house larger populations
- Availability of jobs
- Availability of education
- Adequate health and social services
- Concentration of populations makes several things possible
- Higher densities in cities make more rural land available
- Cheaper to provide services to denser populations
- Takes less energy to provide services to denser populations
- Ability to centralize transportation and trade networks
- Can produce Green Cities
Web sites and sources:
Wikipedia - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/
CIA Factbook - https://cia.gov/cia//publications/factbook/index.html
World Bank - http://www.worldbank.org/
United Nations Statistical Office - http://unstats.un.org/unsd/default.htm
Population Reference Bureau - http://www.prb.org/
- Estimates of future population size, age and sex composition, etc.; based on current data and past trends. Assumptions and best guesses!
- Projections given as three predictions: High, Median, and Low
- All projections make the assumption that at some point world population with plateau at a replacement level!
Ultimate population levels determined by access to and amount of resources available and environmental conditions.
- Through the leveling off of growth implicit in the Demographic Transition Model
- Through more dramatic measures due to resource collapse
- Population is limited by the means of subsistence
- Populations increase with increase in the means of subsistence unless prevented by other checks
- Two types of checks on a population exist:
- Private (moral restraint, celibacy, and chastity)
- Destructive (war, poverty, pestilence, famine)
- Population increases geometrically – Food production increases arithmetically
- When a population has reached an equilibrium with the landscape’s carrying capacity - Neo-Malthusianism
- Concern themselves more with living standards and quality of life
- Predict a coming population doomsday
- Growing human populations pose the most dangerous, current threat to the environment
- Only strict demographic controls everywhere in the world will mitigate the coming catastrophe – demand severely coercive tactics by all governments.
- Population growth is a stimulus to development and advancement
- Human minds are the world’s greatest resource base…
- Population growth can only be continued with increasing technological improvements and scientific advancements.
- Also focus on population more as a political rather than an environmental issue
Population (Demographic) Momentum
- The tendency for population growth to continue despite stringent family planning programs due to a relatively high concentration of people in the childbearing years.
- Due to large numbers of young people in developing nations in South America and the Middle East as well as, to a lesser extent Africa maximum population may exceed the U.N’s prediction of 9 to 10 Billion.
- As the youth bulge cohort advances in age nations are faced with a larger percentage of older people than young people.
- Major problems for national income and economic strength as well as of personal standards of living and wealth
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