Demographic Transition Model
An attempt to apply a model to known world development based on changes due to industrialization and urbanization of nations and cultures.
The model traces changing levels of fertility and mortality with the assumption that, over time, high birth and death rates will gradually be replaced by low rates.
Five Stages
- High Births – High Deaths
- Pre-industrial economy
- High Births – Declining Deaths
- Developing Country
- Improving food and water supply
- Improving Sanitation
- Improvements in farming technology
- Improvements in education
- Results in a large population increase
- Declining Births – Low Deaths
- Contraception
- Wage increases
- Urbanization
- Reduction of subsistence agriculture
- Increase in status and education of women
- Reduced child labor
- Increase in parental investment in children
- Population growth begins to level off
- Low Births – Low Deaths
- Stabilization of population
- Idealized end point
- Deaths higher than Births
- Shrinking population
- Threat to Industrial Societies
- Norm in post-Industrial/deindustrialized societies
- Mitigated through immigration
Problems with the model
- Based on the European experience
- Low post-feudal birth rates replaced by higher birth rates due to increased wealth from industrialization
- Followed by improvements in sanitation and medicine
- Reduction of the chronic “plagues” which had formerly swept
- Finally a reduction of births to match deaths
- Children no longer seen as producers
- Children affected family wealth levels negatively
- Emancipation of women
- Improvements in modern disease control and sanitation modify the curve in developing nations
- Dramatic and quick reduction of mortality rates
- Within one generation instead of over several
- Immediate population increase
- Increased life expectancy for adults
- Dramatic reductions in child and maternal mortality rates
- Decline in Birth Rates is only gradual due to modified cultural expectations
- Some transitional nations still have very high birth rates
- Seem to be caught in a negative spiral
- Poor countries, unable to provide for large population growth
- Population growth inhibits wealth production
- Failure of services drives up mortality rates but not to the previous point of balance with the birth rate
- Enough services remain to increase survivability
- Primarily in sub-Saharan Africa, south central Asia, and the
- These countries will provide the majority of population growth during the early and mid 21st Century
Sub-Saharan
Cradle of Human Evolution
- Australopithecus
- afarensis
- africanus
- aethiopicus, robustus, boisei
- Homo habilis
- Homo erectus
- Late Homo erectus
- Early Homo sapiens
- Homo sapiens neanderthalensis
- Early Homo sapiens
- Homo sapiens sapiens
Ancient
- Oldest known state in
- Located approximately 400 miles north of the present country of
- Present day
- Prosperity flowed from Gold and control of Trans-Saharan trade
- Successor to
- Capital of
Bantu Migration
- Originated around Nigeria-Cameroon
- Spread south and east across
- Began around 5000 years ago
- As the Saharan savannas begin to dry out and become desert
- Spread South and East and then out again
- Generally responsible for the introduction of cattle and animal herding
- Great
- Zulu Empire
Great
- Center of the great empire known as the Munhumutapa Empire (also called Monomotapa or Mwene Mutapa Empire).
- Built between the 11th and 15th Centuries
- As many as 18,000 inhabitants
- Major regional and continental trading center
Sub-Saharan
- Cradle of Humanity
- Physiography
- Plateau Continent
- Without mountainous backbone
- With a set of great lakes
- Variable rainfall
- Low fertility soils and deserts
- Savanna and Steppe vegetation
- Dozens of Nations
- Hundreds of ethnic groups
- Focus on subsistence farming
- Rich in raw materials
- Colonial and Cold War legacies (political and economic)
- Corrupt and mismanaged governments
- Largest refugee population in the world
Environment and Climate
- Entirely within the tropics except for
- Generally defined by hot wet or hot dry climates
- Continental climate regime
- Frequent droughts in dry areas
- Seasons generally divided into dry and wet seasons
- Dry seasons grow longer as you move away from the equator
Geologic Time
- The earth is 4.7 Billion years old! The study of the physical earth involves great time depth and long periods of formation and destruction.
- Punctuated equilibrium…
- Continental Drift – proposed by Alfred Wegener
- Continents began in Pangaea and then moved to their current positions.
- Plate Tectonics – explains Continental Drift
Medical Geography
Tropical
- Malaria
- Yellow Fever
- Bubonic Plague
- Cholera
- Dengue Fever
- Rift Valley Fever
- African Sleeping Sickness
- Ebola
- HIV/AIDS
Land and Farming
- Most Africans are still farmers – least urbanized region remaining in the world
Land Tenure – the way people own, occupy, and use land
- Communal land ownership
- Temporary, custodial rights
- Land owned by extended families, villages, chiefs
Land Alienation – The expropriation of land by others (Colonial Europeans)
- Nationalization of many of the plantations following the end of the colonial period
- Land mismanagement by governments and chiefs
Colonialism
- Began in the 15th Century
- Henry the Navigator
- Sea route to the Orient
- Establishment of Forts for Supplies and for Trade
- Slave trade for American Plantations
- Coastal Reorientation
- Decline of inland states
- Industrial Revolution in the 18th and 19th Centuries
- Shift to natural resource exploitation
- Beginning of true Colonialism
Colonial Policies
Indirect Rule
- Indigenous power structure left partially intact
- Local rulers made representatives of the Crown
Assimilationist
·
·
· Enforced a direct rule which propagated French culture through language, laws, education, and dress (acculturation)
Exploitation
- Maintenance of rigid control
- Natural resource oriented
- First to enslave and last to grant independence
Paternalistic
- Natural resource oriented
- Treated natives as children or a lesser peoples
- 14 European states divided African up without regard to native status
- Results of Superimposed Boundaries
- African peoples and cultures were divided
- Unified regions were broken apart
- Hostile societies forced together
- Minority Rule
- Hinterlands disrupted
- Migration routes closed
- Legacy of Political Fragmentation
Colonial Legacy
- Transportation grid is organized to move resources from the interior to the coast
- Internal communication routes impeded
- Dual Economy
- States depend on just one or a very few crops or resources
- Vulnerable to world markets
- Antagonism between tribes within nations
Languages
- Over 1000 different Languages
- Most do not have a written component
- Niger-Kordofanian – Dominant Language Family
- Kordorfanian subfamily
- Niger-Congo subfamily
- Bantu
- Yoruba
- Akan
- Nilo-Saharan Family is second most important
- Maasai
- Khoisan Family
- Khoi and San peoples of the Kalahari
- Most similar to very ancient languages
Lingua Franca – many Africans are bi- or multi-lingual
- English
- French
- Hausa
- Swahili (Creole language)
- A new language formed from a more simple pidgin language
- Wes Kos
- Pidgin English
- An amalgam of languages
- Generally restricted to a specific function
- Commerce, Administration, Supervision
- Highly simplified grammatical structure
- Sharply reduced vocabulary
- Ability to express simple ideas and concepts only
Religion in
- Animistic – Pagan
- Christianity - Colonial
- All denominations
- Blended Christianity with African beliefs - Accommodation
- Voodoo
- Evangelical Christianity is fastest growing
- Islam
- Top down approach to conversion
- No blending of Islam with traditional beliefs
Population and Urbanization
- Least urbanized realm
- Accelerating urbanization (33%+)
- Formal sector overtaken by informal sector
Regions of Sub-Saharan
Equatorial
- The
- Burkina-Faso
African Transitional Zone
- Zone of Islamic influence
Regions of Sub-Saharan
- Six landlocked states
- Northern zone marks limits of
- Plateau Country
- Rich in natural resources
- Agricultural diversity
- Two major river systems
- Orange-Vaal
- Region of great changes
- Population of 44 Million
- Black African – 79%
- European Descent – 9.6%
- Indian/Asian – 2.5%
- Mixed Race – 8.9%
- At least nine languages
- IsiZulu 23.8%
- IsiXhosa 17.6%
- Afrikaans 13.3%
- Sepedi 9.4%
- English 8.2%
- Setswana 8.2%
- Sesotho 7.9%
- Other 7.2%
Apartheid
- Apartness (In Afrikaans)
- A system of legal, economic, political, and racial segregation
- Country ruled by those of European descent
- Complete disenfranchisement of all others
- Institution of a Homeland system for blacks
- Formation of the African National Congress and the Pan African Congress
- Sharpsville Massacre – 1959
- 69 unarmed black protesters killed
- Exposed Apartheid and the white regime for what it really was
- Internal resistance to apartheid expressed by up to 20% of white South Africans
- International resistance
- Removal from Commonwealth status
- Sanctions
- Constant internal and international conflict
- Entire country under a “state of emergency”
- Change began between 1985 and 1990
- Last all white vote – 1992
- Decision to dismantle Apartheid
- April 27, 1994 – End of Apartheid and foundation of the new
- Vote gave a majority to the ANC
- Minority representation by whites, coloureds, and Inkatha (Zulu)
- Oldest known modern human sites
- Khoisan and Bantu migrations
- European settlement at
- Gateway from the
- Dutch and then English
- “Colored” population generally from Dutch and early English presence
- British importation of south Asians for labor
- Mostly around
Conflicts and Wars
- Xhosa and Zulu Empires
- Khoikhoi-Dutch Wars
- 1659-1677
- Dutch and Khoikhoi
- Zulu War
- 1879
- Between the English and the Zulus
- Boer War
- 1880-1881 and 1899-1902
- Between the English and the Boers (Dutch settlers)
- Modern Border Wars
- Modern Internal Wars of Resistance
Contemporary state of
- Damaged by years of Apartheid and unrest
- Mainly lack of education for non-whites
- Very rich in mineral resources
- Urbanized
- Western Infrastructure
- Education
- Health Care
- Military
- Political and social institutions
- Economy dependent upon world mineral markets
- High unemployment
- AIDS/HIV
- Mismanaged by the government
- Very high rate among non-whites
- Vast internal Core-Periphery issues
Middle Tier Southern African Countries
- Mineral and agriculturally rich
- Former
- Prosperity destroyed by emerging totalitarian government of President Mugabe
- Former
- Diamonds
- Mainly desert
- Heart of the
- Diamonds
- Middle Income with subsistence farming
- Highest rate of AIDS/HIV in tropical
- Within
- Within
- Long term guerrilla war between white Europeans and black Africans
- Population of around 12 million
- African 98%
- White <1%
- AIDS/HIV at about 25% of total population
- Impoverished and starving
- Failed program of land redistribution
- Whites own(ed) vast majority of land (Land Alienation)
- Land redistribution used to reward supporters of government
- Mob redistribution
- No systematic transfer of knowledge or technology
- Failure of new farms
Northern Tier Southern African Countries
- Former Portuguese dependency
- Rich mineral and agriculture base
- Country split after 1975
- Cold War politics
- Destruction of Infrastructure and people
- Major port access to
- Poor mineral and agricultural base
- Country decimated and devastated by Cold War proxy battles
- Dependent upon world copper market
- Dependent upon transportation infrastructure destroyed in
- Mainly agricultural base
- Hampered by surrounding conflicts
- Lies astride the equator
- Mainly
- Cooler and Dryer Climate
- Ethnically Diverse
- Rift Valley
- Population of around 35 million
- 99% African
- 1% all other
- AIDS/HIV rate 6.7%
- Religion
- Around 78% Christian
- 10% Muslim
- 10% Indigenous beliefs
- Swahili – lingua franca
- Tourism and agriculture
- Coffee
- Tea
- Highest rate of population growth in the world in the 1980’s
- Severe population pressure
- Democratic Regime
- Tensions between majority Kikuyu and other tribes
- Uncertain government
- Largest state in
- Composed of
- Democratic Elections in 1995
- Fairly peaceful democratic process
- Population of around 38 million
- 99% African
- Languages
- Swahili and English
- Religions
- Indigenous – 35%
- Muslim – 35% (
- Christian – 30%
- Tourism and Agriculture
- Dispersed Population
- lack of urbanization
- focus on agriculture
- AIDS/HIV – 8.8%
- Fourth largest island in the world
- Settled by settlers from
- French Colony –
- Population of around 18.5 million
- Slight majority of Malayo-Indonesian
- Others mainly East Africans
- HIV/AIDS – 1.7%
Equatorial
- Sits astride the equator
- Mainly lowland
- Large areas of tropical rainforest
- Dominated by the
The Democratic
- Conrad’s Heart of Darkness
- Population of almost 63 million
- Over 200 tribal and ethnic groups
- Bantu peoples make up approximately 45%
- Civil War since 1998
- Slowly recovering except in eastern portions
- Instigated following genocide in
- Death toll of 3 to 4 million, minimum
Equatorial
- Strongest agricultural sector
- One of the most developed areas of the region
- Former Spanish colony
- One of the least developed nations of the region
- Oil Reserves
- Former French colony
- Generally good economy
- Large oil reserves
- Former French colony
- Years of civil war
- Declining oil production
- Former French colony
- Landlocked
- Government of the form of Anocracy
- The
- São Tomé and Príncipe
- Mini-state
- Large oil reserves
- South of the
- Dominated by
- Split by the “Islamic Front”
- Widespread rebellions, government collapses, cultural and ethnic strife, and anarchy
- Former British colony – independence in 1960
- Population of around 132 million people
- Over 250 ethnic groups
- Cuban refugees
- HIV/AIDS – 5.4%
- Religion
- Muslim – 50% (north)
- Christian – 40% (south and central)
- Other – 10%
- Very oil rich
- Large amounts of internal strife
- Ethnic friction
- Religious disagreements
- Political mismanagement and misrule
- Economic disaster
- Military is one of
Curse of Oil
- Large wealth lead to brief prosperity then failed
- Misguided development and national improvement schemes
- Corruption and theft within and by the government and others in power
- Focus on oil ignored basic agriculture and infrastructure necessities and assistance
- Borrowing against “future” oil revenue led to massive debt and economic failure
- Disenfranchisement of people living in oil rich areas
- Massive ecological damage
Other Problems
- Islamic majority areas in the north proclaimed Sharia Law
- Riots and violence between Christians and Muslims
- Ethnic cleansing of Christians in the northern regions
- Distrust of International Organizations leads to refusal to accept Polio Vaccinations
- A plot to render Muslims infertile and corrupt the women
- Strong devolutionary forces
- High mortality rate from HIV/AIDS
- Former French colony
- One of the longest running and strongest African democracies
- Focused on subsistence farming
- Internal ethnic and religious (Muslim) unity
- Some ethnic violence in the south
- Former British colony
- Used to resettle former British slaves
- Civil war funded by blood diamond
- Uneasy and tentative democracy
- Formed by resettled freed
- Formerly economically and politically sound
- Destroyed by civil war and military coups (10%+ of population died)
- Now peaceful but just barely
- Former French colony
- Formerly a very strong economy
- Military coup and years of mismanagement
- Country still split between north and south following democratic elections
- Burkina-Faso
- Former Gold Coast – British colony
- First Sub-Saharan African country to gain independence
- Recovering from decades of military rule
- Free and democratic country
- Former English colony
- Small enclave surrounded by
- Uncertain democratic government
The Horn of
- Maintained native (royal) rule except for WWII
- Near even split between Christian and Muslim populations
- Serious and unresolved border conflict with
- Former Ethiopian province
- Mix of ethnic and religious groups
- Former French colony – Mini-State
- Years of military rule and civil unrest replaced by democratic government
- 94% Muslim
- Break-of-Bulk point for the East African Highlands – Gateway to the
- Only
- Former British and Italian colonies
- Failed State (Anocracies)
- Multiple Tribal/Clan and Ethnic groups
- Fall of central government lead to clan warfare
- Fight between Islamic Courts (fundamentalists) and clans, supported by
- Formerly a part of
- Ruled by democratically elected clan congress
- Generally ethnically and politically homogeneous (compared to
- Not recognized by the international community
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